April 25, 2008 - Opua

We've been sitting here looking at the weather trying to figure out what to do. If we go too soon, we will have at least 2 lows march right over us as we head towards New Caledonia or Vanuatu. If we wait until Sunday, we'll have to deal with at least one low and its attendant squally weather. This would normally be fine (not optimal, but fine), but our concern is, if we run into trouble (engine failure) and can't get north, there is no where to run, with little lows to the east and a big bad low coming out of the south west, bringing with it high winds and seas. If we wait until late next week for the big bad low to come through, the high behind it is coming so fast on its heels that we would have to leave New Zealand in really big seas (20 plus feet) to avoid big headwinds as the high comes across. That's not a viable option. So our two realistic options seem to be either to go this Sunday, or to wait two weeks and leave on the backside of the big high. Bob McDavitt, the local marine weather guru, is giving a talk tomorrow at the Opua Cruising Club. We'll see whether he can shed any light on the situation and then make a decision about a Sunday departure.